Atletico Madrid receive second city opponents Real Madrid at the Metropolitano Stadium on Wednesday evening for the second-leg of their UEFA Champions League Round of 16 duel. Los Blancos lead 2-1 after a thrilling matchup at the Bernabeu last week, when a late goal from Brahim Diaz swung the tie in favor of Carlo Ancelotti’s side.
Match Preview
Historically, this has been a sweet matchup for Real in the UEFA Champions League, who have taken every single previous European tie between these two, including the finals of 2014 and 2016 as well as the 2017 semis. Diego Simeone’s men will buoy their spirits, nevertheless, by their commanding home record against their mortal foes, having lost just one of their last seven clashes at the Metropolitano.
Atletico are seasoned fighters in cup competitions and are unbeaten in their last five matches against Real Madrid in all domestic and European tournaments. And they have overturned a first-leg deficit in the knockout rounds of the Champions League on three previous occasions, all at home, including their comeback against Inter Milan in this round last season.
And there was something else to add to their confidence: Atletico have not been beaten in a Champions League home knockout match in 28 years — 18 matches, in fact, since Ajax won at the Vicente Calderon in 1997. But their recent trend has been less than convincing. In La Liga on Sunday, they had a stunning 3-2 defeat against Getafe, conceding twice after the 88th minute. That loss dropped them to third in the league, a point behind leaders Barcelona, having played a game more.
Real Madrid, for its part, is in the driver’s seat but will have to be at its best to secure qualification, especially at a venue where it has struggled in recent seasons. They relished that stellar run at Atletico’s previous home, the Calderon, between 2008 and 2014, winning eight consecutive games at the ground, but have taken only three wins in the last 17 clashes away from home against their rivals. Furthermore, Real have never won at Atletico in the Champions League, having tried and failed on three previous occasions.
Still, Los Blancos’ pedigree in Europe gives them an edge as favorites. Their first-leg victory made them the first club to reach 500 games and 300 wins in Champions League history. They are also on a five-match winning streak in knockout matches in the competition, and are unbeaten in their last 10 matches. And in addition, Ancelotti’s team has an astonishing record when they win the first leg; it has gone through in 21 of its last 22 ties after a first-leg win — the only time he and they faltered was against Ajax in 2019.
Real, though, has been uninspiring in recent games. They were outshot 20-10 in another game on the weekend — a 2-1 win over Rayo Vallecano — and consistently outplayed in possession, a pair of stats which will raise alarms ahead of that all-important visit to the Metropolitano.
Team News
Atletico Madrid have virtually a full squad at their disposal, with the exception of captain Koke, who is ruled out with injury. Cesar Azpilicueta was back in the squad over the weekend, and Simeone is likely to make few changes from the first leg. Nahuel Molina and Robin Le Normand, who were both in the lineup for the 2-1 loss at Getafe, could keep their spots, while Julian Alvarez, who scored a stunning goal in the first leg, should also start alongside Antoine Griezmann up front.
Dani Ceballos is out for Real Madrid, who have also long been without Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao with injury. Antonio Rudiger and Thibaut Courtois will return, however, having missed the Rayo win. Ferland Mendy and Eduardo Camavinga are expected to start, having been rested at the weekend. The primary adjustment will be Jude Bellingham’s return from suspension, possibly at the my expense of Brahim Diaz, who was the man of the hour last week.
Predicted Lineups
Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Molina, Gimenez, Le Normand, Javi Galan; Simeone, Llorente, De Paul, Lino; Alvarez, Griezmann
Real Madrid: Courtois; Valverde, Asensio, Rudiger, Mendy; Tchouameni, Camavinga; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Jr; Mbappe
PREDICTION: Atletico Madrid to Score at Least One Goal
Real Madrid are still favorites on account of their European experience and the first-leg result, but Atletico’s home record in Champions League knockout stages makes this a tough night for Los Blancos. For Simeone’s side to overturn the deficit, they’ll need to be at their very best, and while Real are bound to endure difficult moments, they’re adept at getting across the line when it matters most. Expect a very physical game, with both team having their opportunities to move on.
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