A high-stakes clash is on the cards at SoFi Stadium on Thursday as Canada and Mexico meet for the first time in CONCACAF Nations League history, with a place in the final on the line. Both squads have the wind at their backs heading into what's primed to be a heated battle between two regional powers.
Jesse Marsch’s Canada Emerged in the Glow of U.S. Superiority
Canada comes to this fixture brimming with confidence, having thrashed Suriname 4-0 on aggregate in the quarter-finals. Under head coach Jesse Marsch, the Canucks have made giant leaps, culminating in a fourth-place finish at the 2024 Copa America — a tournament record.
Canada has been on an upward trajectory ever since that impressive tournament run, going unbeaten in their last five international matches, four of which they won. The Dutch have a history of rising to the occasion in big matches, and Thursday’s semi-final is only the team’s second at this stage in the past three editions of the Nations League. They were led to their last semi-final in 2023, when they beat Panama 2-0 to reach the finals.
Canada has been doing well against CONCACAF opposition lately, winning its last six matches against neighbors. Their last loss to a CONCACAF team came in last season’s quarter-finals against Jamaica (3-2). On home soil, they have also tasted defeat only once in the last seven matches (the only loss was against 2024 Copa America winners Argentina in that year’s semi-finals).
History is also on Canada’s side, in recent meetings with Mexico. The Canucks are also unbeaten in their past three meetings with El Tri, including a 0-0 tie in a friendly last September in Arlington, Texas.
Mexico’s Redemption Mission
Mexico's route to the final four has been dramatic, overturning a 2-0 deficit from the first leg of their semi-final against Honduras with a 4-0 second-leg win. It was the second consecutive Nations League edition during which El Tri rallied from that steep of a hole.
That lopsided victory was Mexico’s heaviest since it beat Honduras, 4-0, in the 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup. Javier Aguirre’s third stint in charge has been marked by an emphasis on defensive stability — the Mexicans have had five cleans sheets in seven games under him.
The three people have an excellent record in CONCACAF semi-finals, having won five of their last six semi-finals. Their only semi-final loss was against the USA in the 2022-23 Nations League (0-3). Mexico has won all six matches in the competition when it opens the score since losing the 2021 Nations League final in the extra time against the US (3-2).
In addition, Mexico holds a recent edge over Canada in CONCACAF tournaments, winning the last three times they have met in competitive play, including 2-1 in the 2021 Gold Cup semi-finals.
Key Players & Team News
Canada:
Canada is without Richie Laryea, who has a hamstring injury, and has replaced him with Zorhan Bassong. Three — Promise David (Union SG), Daniel Jebbison (Bournemouth) and Tom McGill (Brighton & Hove Albion) — are looking for their first international caps.
Alphonso Davies is poised to make history, needing one more goal to equal Alex Bunbury in ninth spot on Canada’s all-time scoring charts. Meanwhile, Jonathan Osorio could match Paul Stalteri for third most caps in national team history if he plays in both remaining Nations League matches.
Jonathan David became Canada’s all-time leading goalscorer in the quarter-finals, registering his 31st strike for the national team. Jacob Shaffelburg, who scored a pair against the Quakes, has pulled ahead to six tallies for Les Rouges.
Mexico:
There are no major injuries for Mexico, but two players — Ramón Juárez of Club América and Carlos Moreno of Pachuca — have yet to debut internationally. Recent veteran addition Jesús Gallardo received his 100th cap as well recently, and Roberto Alvarado may reach 50 by the tournament’s end.
Henry Martín, who scored twice in Mexico’s second-leg victory over Honduras, will spearhead their attack, but Jorge Sánchez and Fulham’s Raúl Jiménez also found the net in that game. Jiménez is also chasing a personal milestone, his next goal lifting him past Luis Hernández for fourth on Mexico’s all-time scoring list.
Predicted Lineups:
Canada possible XI: St. Clair; Johnston, Bombito, Cornelius, Davies; Osorio; Buchanan, Eustaquio, Shaffelburg; David, Larin
Mexico Probable XI: Malagón; Huescas, Montes, Vásquez, Gallardo; Ed. Álvarez, Rodríguez; Ef. Álvarez, Romo, Vega; Jiménez
The Stakes & Final Prediction
Both teams will be highly motivated with a spot in the Nations League final up for grabs. Canada will lean on their defensive solidity and counter-attacking prowess, while Mexico’s experience and attacking potency could be vital.
Expect a back-and-forth affair, with each side having its moments. Considering Canada’s recent form and Mexico’s ability to come alive in big games, this could go the distance. However, with Mexico’s history in CONCACAF tournaments and their proven ability to rebound, they might have the slight edge in a match to remember.
Prediction: Mexico 2-1 Canada
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