Home Run Derby 2024 Prediction
Game Info: Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:00 pm (Globe Life Field)
WELCOME TO HOME RUN DERBY 2024 BEST BETS
PRESENTED BY THE OUTLET SPORTS VENTURES
Well here we are once again, 2024 MLB All~Star break and It’s a beautiful Monday night for the MLB Home Run Derby at Globe Life Field. Here at The Outlet SV we are happy to help provide insights and information into this years Derby, In This article we find MLB Home Run Derby Picks, There are eight contestants, with similar rules as past years. Unlike the MLB regular season there is not many changes to go over. So Let’s break down the eight players participating and then follow it up with a MLB HR Derby prediction to get us some big plus money for this years Bombs Away Bigrade
The Home Run Derby Player Breakdowns
Marcell Ozuna, +380 -
Marcell Ozuna has 26 homers this season, which should lead to the third time in his career he’s reached the 30 mark. Ozuna hit 40 home runs last year and received some MVP votes. Ozuna is getting stronger as he approaches 34 years old and has the second-best odds to win the derby despite no previous experience.
Adolis Garcia, +500 -
Adolis Garcia participated in last year’s HR derby and hit 17 but was sent home in the first round by Randy Arozarena. Garcia has 17 homers on the year, which means he should reach at least 20 for the fourth straight year. Garcia will also be the crowd favorite considering he’s a Texas Ranger, and 67 of his 114 career bombs have come at Globe Life Field.
Gunnar Henderson, +430 -
Gunnar Henderson has no derby experience, but he’s hit a combined 55 homers in his last 932 at bats. With 27 homers this year, Henderson should set a new career high and put himself in the conversation as one of the best power hitters at only 23 years old. Henderson also has 1 homer in just two career games at Globe Life Field.
Pete Alonso, +300 -
Pete Alonso is the comfortable favorite because he won the derby in 2019 and 2021. Alonso also holds the record for most homers in a single round with 35. Alonso has 18 homers this year, which does put in question if he’ll reach 40 for the fourth time in his career, but he has the experience and is somebody who takes this event seriously.
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Alec Bohm, +1600 -
Alec Bohm has the worst odds of any player in the field. Bohm has no derby experience and has hit only 11 homers this season. Bohm is more of a contact hitter and has hit 55 bombs in over 2,200 career plate appearances. Bohm is likely only here because he’s an all star already and was willing to fill up a spot because he didn’t have to travel to Arlington.
Teoscar Hernandez, +1100 -
It’s kind of surprising Teoscar Hernandez has never participated in the derby before. While not an overwhelming power hitter, Hernandez is one bomb away from hitting 20 or more for the sixth time in his last 7 seasons. Hernandez has pop, and it should be interesting to see him participate in this event.
Jose Ramirez, +1400 -
Jose Ramirez participated in the 2022 derby and lost a close round to the eventual winner, Juan Soto, 17-18. Ramirez has hit 23 homers this year, which is the seventh time in his career he’s reached the 20 mark. Since 2017, Ramirez has hit 220 homers on a .280 batting average. Ramirez has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the last decade.
Bobby Witt Jr., +470 -
Bobby Witt Jr. has a little over 1,600 at bats for his career and has already hit 66 homers. Witt is averaging a home run every 24.4 at bats up to this point. Witt has no bombs in 9 career games at Globe Life Field, but there’s no doubt he’s one of the better power hitters in the game right now.
THE FINAL TOP 3 DERBY PREDICTIONS
PICK 1 ) round 1 H2H ~ Bohm over Ramirez +105 ( 1.5u )
PICK 2 ) THE SEMIS FINALISTS ~ Bohm, Witt.Jr, Ozuna, Alonso +1800 ( .25u )
PICK 3 ) TO WIN THE DERBY ~ Polar Bear Pete Alonso +300 ( .5u )
I’m a guy who looks at long shot odds in these events, as I like bang for my buck. I would give Alec Bohm a look at +1800 if looking for a real good shot at the dark horse. He has legit power, and those odds are straight up disrespectful. The problem is, outside of Alonso, only Garcia and Ramirez have derby experience. You can’t make up for that. While hitting homers is one thing, there’s something about knowing how to pace yourself, when to call a timeout, know when you’re on a heater, etc., that determines who wins the derby almost every year. Alonso no longer needs the money the way he did in past years when he wasn’t making nearly what he is now, but he still takes pride as being crowned the best power hitter in the game. He has the experience, with four previous appearances and two victories. I can’t go against that with a chance to make three times my money.
I also thinks it is amazing to see Alonso possibly joining Ken Griffey Jr. as a three time derby winner.
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