MLB Top 3 StrikeOut Props for 4/14/25

Today's MLB slate presents enticing opportunities for strikeout prop bettors, and data provided by Pine Sports, utilizing "The Plug's" innovative New Strikeout Model, has identified the pitchers with the best numbers to exceed their projected totals. Below, we dive into the top three such pitchers, offering a comprehensive analysis of their recent form, the tendencies of their opposing lineups, and the corresponding betting value. Let’s get into it!

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1. Framber Valdez (Houston Astros @ St. Louis Cardinals)

• Strikeout Prop Line: Over 5.5 (-113) at FanDuel

• Recent Performance:

  • Valdez has hit the over in 70% of his last 10 games and 73.33% of his last 15 games, with an average of 7.0 strikeouts over the last 15 games.

  • On the road this season, he has been dominant, averaging 8.0 strikeouts per gameand hitting the over in 100% of his road starts.

• Matchup Analysis:

  • The Cardinals' lineup has struggled against left-handed pitching, with several key hitters showing high strikeout rates against southpaws.

  • Valdez’s ability to induce ground balls and limit hard contact (average exit velocity of 90.7 mph) complements his strikeout potential.

• Recommendation: Valdez’s consistency and the Cardinals’ vulnerability make the over 5.5 strikeouts a strong play.

2. Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals)

• Strikeout Prop Line: Over 6.5 (-159) at Pinnacle

• Recent Performance:

  • Skenes has hit the over in 60% of his last 10 games and 65% of his last 20 games, with an average of 7.2 strikeouts over the last 20 games.

  • At home, he has been particularly effective, averaging 7.0 strikeouts per game and hitting the over in 100% of his home starts this season.

• Matchup Analysis:

  • The Nationals’ lineup is one of the least disciplined in the league, with high strikeout rates against right-handed pitchers.

  • Skenes’ ability to generate whiffs (50% whiff rate against the Nationals’ roster) and his dominance at PNC Park make this a favorable spot.

• Recommendation: Back Skenes to exceed 6.5 strikeouts in this matchup.

3. Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros)

• Strikeout Prop Line: Over 5.5 (-123) at Pinnacle

• Recent Performance:

  • Gray has hit the over in 80% of his last 10 games and 86.67% of his last 15 games, with an average of 7.13 strikeouts over the last 15 games.

  • At home this season, he has been flawless, hitting the over in 100% of his starts with an average of 7.5 strikeouts per game.

• Matchup Analysis:

  • The Astros’ lineup, while potent, has several hitters with high strikeout rates against right-handed pitchers.

  • Gray’s ability to mix pitches and generate swings and misses (23.2% whiff rate against the Astros’ roster) positions him well to succeed.

• Recommendation: Gray’s recent form and home dominance make the over 5.5 strikeouts a strong bet.

  
  

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