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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: A Strong Prop Choice Tonight! 3/25/25


Three basketball players in blue jerseys. Center holds a ball wearing a fur coat. Background reads "SLAM." Text: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: A Strong Case for Over 6.5 Assists Tonight


Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) has been a dominant force for the Oklahoma City Thunder this season, and his assist prop of Over 6.5 assists for tonight's game against the Sacramento Kings is one of the most compelling bets on the board. Let’s break down why this prop has a high probability of hitting, supported by recent performance trends, match-up analysis, and team context.


Recent Performance

SGA has been in stellar form as a play-maker:

  • Last 5 Games: He has averaged 7.6 assists, hitting the over on this line in 80% of those games.

  • Last 10 Games: His average remains strong at 7.3 assists, with a consistent hit rate of 80%.

This consistency highlights his ability to distribute the ball effectively, even against tougher defenses.


Matchup Analysis

The Sacramento Kings present a favorable matchup for SGA’s assist potential:

  • Kings’ Defense: Sacramento ranks 22nd in assists allowed to opposing guards, indicating a vulnerability in their defensive scheme.

  • High-Scoring Game: The Thunder average 119.8 points per game, while the Kings allow 115.8 points per game. This sets the stage for a high-paced, high-scoring affair, which naturally increases assist opportunities.

Additionally, the Kings defensive struggles against dynamic guards like SGA make this prop even more appealing.

Graph of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's assist stats with teal bars on dark background. Includes projection and percentages.
JaXon by Pine Sports SGA Charts!

Team Context

The Thunder are riding a six-game winning streak and are looking to secure their 60th win of the season. With key players like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren listed as day-to-day, SGA will likely shoulder an even greater playmaking burden. His ability to create opportunities for teammates like Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins will be critical in maintaining the Thunder’s offensive efficiency.


Odds and Value

The odds for Over 6.5 assists are set at -130, reflecting a strong likelihood of success. You can find this line at ESPN Bet.

Betting interface for OKC Thunder vs Sacramento Kings. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 assists. Shows odds, game time, and team logos.
Pine Sports bet slip option

The A.I JaXon Best NBA Value Bet!

Basketball player in blue "Thunder" jersey holds a microphone with a smile, speaking in a dim setting. Visible logos: "Thunder" and "Love's."

THE PICK: SGA Assist over 6.5 -130


Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s recent form, favorable matchup, and increased playmaking responsibilities make Over 6.5 assists a highly attractive prop for tonight’s game. With an 80% hit rate over his last 10 games and Sacramento’s defensive struggles, this bet offers both value and a strong probability of hitting.


 

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